ANOTHER SPRING BLIZZARD WILL POUND NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH TONIGHT.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING AND WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY.

THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE REGION FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ARE OCCURRING WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AS WELL AS THE PLAINS OF NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.

SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 16 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND ON THE PLAINS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. SOUTH OF I-90 SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DROP 20 TO 30 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS.

However, from this evening through the next frame (F024 hr valid 2am edt Tuesday) and into the morning we see the potential for mixed pop up as precipitation begins to fall in Minnesota, and maintain itself through 8am edt (F030hr) tomorrow morning in Minnesota, and also spreading into Wisconsin as a finite boundary between liquid, mixed, and frozen precipitation exists across Minnesota and Wisconsin.

By 8pm tomorrow evening (F042hr) the low is centered over Minnesota with mostly snow remaining for the state with the exception of liquid possible for the extreme southeastern corner, while the rain/snow line divides Wisconsin just north of the central portion of the state. Michigan still has the opportunity for mixed in the U.P. with snow on the western fringe, while rain will fall through the southern Great Lakes states into the deep south.

By 8am edt Wednesday (F054hr) the low persists in northern Minnesota with rain extending from eastern Michigan south into northern Florida, where by 8pm on Wednesday Evening (F066hr) the low has mostly exited the northern tier, with the second of our triple threat beginning to show itself in the central plains, Happy April Fool’s Day!

Our last valid frame for the 06z run F084hr shows an area of lower pressure centered between Arkansas and Oklahoma, so from here let’s switch to our 7.5 day Precipitation Type Animation and notice that at the same valid time (F084) our low is centered slightly more east than on our 3.5 day product.

Advancing through F090 hr valid 8pm Tuesday April 2, our low is forecast to dig slightly deeper while moving just north of Memphis where by 8pm on Friday it is centered over basically Columbus, Ohio. Notice throughout these frames mostly liquid precipitation is forecast to occur, with a slight opportunity for snow in western Arkansas.

From Columbus, our second low dances a little N/S jig before heading up the eastern coast and into Canada, while around 2am EDT (F120hr) Saturday Morning, we have another Dodge City low becoming more pronounced.

The forecast trajectory for our third low of this week’s triple threat is a generally eastward progression. Advancing from the 2am Frame above through 8pm next Sunday Evening the center of circulation basically straddles the Kansas / Oklahoma state line with the usual distribution of snows to the north and west, and rains to the south, where by 8am edt on Monday MOrning the center of circulation hovers above Cincinnati, with snows along the western flank of the system, according to this graphic to include Chicago, IL.

You may of course view our 7.5 Day Forecast Maximum and Minimum temperature animations to view temperature distributions associated with these movements. The SPC has also issued a Convective Outlook for today that includes a slight risk category for southeastern Kansas, and northeastern Oklahoma, but I’m not overly excited about it, other than the potential for large hail. More interesting will be the potential for severe weather with our developing second area of lower pressure, more on that later.

Please be sure to view our Advisory and Radar Centers for the latest updates and developments.

As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!

cheers,

Remnants of yesterday’s activities are slowly moving out of the southeast where three possible tornadoes were reported in the Florida Panhandle, but the main threat for today will be in the area outlined above later this afternoon and this evening.

Today we will utilize our usual graphics to discuss where our current storm will go, and where those in the future may approach.

The second frame valid at 2pm EDT extends the potential for mixed precipitation in Oklahoma and even into southern Kansas, while snows are still favored for the previous regions.

Advancing through to F021 Valid 5am EDT tomorrow, our low is shown to accelerate through northeastern Oklahoma with snows trailing along the southwestern flank, and from here she begins a faster move to the northeast.

F036hr Valid 8pm EDT we see a twinge of an area near Chicago showing the potential for mixed precipitation while snows are still falling in northeastern Oklahoma, southeastern Texas through Missouri and into Iowa. As we advance a few frames through 5am on Sunday, the snow band becomes more clearly defined with snows covering the majority of Illinois, eastern Missouri, Wisconsin, and into Michigan, where the potential for mixed exists over the previous hours.

By F051hr 11am EDT on Sunday snow is still in the cards for Chicago, Indiana, and Michigan, but also take a look to the west. Do you see something we’ve mentioned a few times developing? =)

By 8pm Sunday evening, our first low is nearly finished with us, with lingering snows possible in Ohio, Michigan, and of course the Ridge-and-Valley provinces of the Mid Atlantic states. While the second low of our triple threat scenario is showing itself in the Rockies. Go ahead and fast forward through F075hr, 11am EDT on Monday Morning and notice the second low centered in Nebraska with snows running through both Dakotas, southeastern Montana, and eastern Wyoming.

By the last forecast hour (F084) for our 3.5 Day animation valid 8pm EDT Monday Evening, the second low is still in northeastern Nebraska with a forecast central pressure of 995mb, with snows still trailing through both Dakotas, central and western Nebraska and lighter snows possible in the fringes.

OK, so now we are through 8pm EDT next Monday morning, from here pull up our 7.5 Day Precipitation Type Animation where we left off previously, so F084hr Valid 8pm EDT on Monday March 30. Notice that the low is forecast to be in a similar position, with a wider band of snows possible since as you recall this product is at 6 hour intervals instead of 3. So where does it go from here?

Interestingly, it seems Minnesota may have have an attractive force, as we advance through 8pm EDT on Tuesday morning, it is centered on the border of Minnesota and Iowa with a forecast central pressure of 994mb. By 8pm next Tuesday, central pressure rises slightly while the low centers itself over Rochester. But do you see anything else starting to develop? =)

Threat 3 begins forming at the frame above, but advance through F120hr valid 8am EDT next Wedesday, where it appears it may wish to become another ‘Dodge City Low.’ However, forward through 8pm on Wednesday (F132), notice how she digs like we previously forecast to become perhaps another Panhandle hook.

To give you an idea where this low is heading, forward all the way through next Friday April 3, (F168hr) at 8am EDT. She looks to dig deeply doesn’t she, all the way to 980mb! However, recall i’ve mentioned before that often times the vertical stacking, or depth of central pressure often fluctuates with models especially out this far, but it surely could be interesting! Notice Minnesota is in the line of fire again.

The last frame we can utilize is F180hr valid 8pm EDT next Friday where the third low in our triple threat scenario eases up to 985mb, but notice closely the division of snow and rain.

Additionally what’s going on off the coast of British Columbia on the last frame? =)

Snow accumulations with our first low will continue to be respectable where totals of up to 1 foot in portions of Oklahoma and Kansas are easily obtainable. As she turns to the northeast there we be a very long swath of 6″ snows running through Kansas, Missouri, and into Illinois. The interesting thing will be the totals once she reaches Chicago.. very tough to tell. I am going to say the best totals look to be from Oak Park to the north and east, where 6″ would be a good bet. South of Oak Park on a line from say Naperville to Aurora, perhaps 4-6″. It will be interesting to see how it pans out and if the models change their minds over the next few days.

The icing we mentioned is certainly in the cards for many areas, but the best chance for accumulation is in Oklahoma, Kansas and northwestern Missouri today, as well as a splinge in northern Illinois, not to forget the potential we mentioned in Michigan coming up.

Flooding is still going insane for the north. Our forecast yesterday still hold true, or simply utilize our fantastic Rivers & Lakes Center mentioned in yesterday’s post to view live and updated conditions.

Please be sure to view our Advisory and Radar Centers for the latest updates and developments.

As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!

cheers,

Very impressive snow totals will accompany Blizzard Bubba as he builds in Colorado and Kansas, with snows forecast to continue along the track we discussed yesterday, and will update again tomorrow morning. The city that will likely garner the most attention in the national media is of course Denver, Colorado, where one of the lowest snow totals for the season on record of 18.8″ will change dramatically as the storm moves through.

The blizzard warning for Denver is below for your convenience:

MAJOR WINTER STORM MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO…

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES FROM WESTERN WYOMING TO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY TONIGHT. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS AS WELL. BY MIDDAY MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL BE WIDESPREAD ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. THIS WILL CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON THE PLAINS AS WELL AS WIND PRONE AREAS IN THE FOOTHILLS.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WORST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN BOTH THE WINDS AND SNOWFALL WILL PEAK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA BUT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SNOWFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 6 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE TO BETWEEN 8 AND 16 INCHES IN THE DENVER METRO AREA WITH UP TO TWO FEET OF SNOW IN AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF DENVER. THE SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH PROLONGED WINDS WILL CREATE SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING OF SNOW ON THE PLAINS.

Update: The Clarion Ledger out of Jackson, Mississippi reports that Governor Haley Barbour has officially declared a state of emergency for many counties affected by yesterday’s severe storms, and that a “path of substantial damage” was noted for the Magee tornado that “… tore through the north side of town.” Other reports and pictures are available with the Clarion Ledger article.

Click the image at right or here to view storm reports by type and date. It is handy when viewing storm reports to choose the “range selector” under the date toggle forms, and choose “past 2 or 3 days” to ensure the relevant information you seek is pulled up from the database.

As you open the link, scroll down until you see the map and notice “River & Lake Stage Conditions”, with the scale of “Normal (color green)” to “Major Flood (color purple),” and also the Outlook thumbnail in the right menu. For this example I advise clicking the boundary between North Dakota and Minnesota.

After doing so hold your mouse cursor over the large purple dot just south of Fargo, and notice the flyout that says “Red River of the North… Stage 38.67 feet – Major Flooding.” Then click the dot. I chose this for you since it is garnering the most media attention.

Now what comes up is action stages and flow information for the river, then below a Forecast of projected river stages, and historical data. Note that currently (current is highlighted when you scroll down) we are at 38 feet + but as we move forward in time, a peak of 41 feet is forecast to occur by 1pm on Saturday, March 28, and continue at that level through next Tuesday March 31, and then very slowly begin tapering off, remaining at a major flood stage through April 2, a week from today.

As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!

cheers,

Our Radar Center places the center of circulation over northern Minnesota at the time of this writing with a central pressure of 993MB (use ‘fronts’ overlay checkbox on right) and medium strength snows flanking the western edge of the low. Rain extends from the Great Lakes states into the deep south amidst a mishmash of airmass interactions, however many areas of the south can certainly use the precipitation to aid in refilling their reservoirs.

Last Friday we mentioned the next system that is forecast to develop, our “Roswell low.” This morning examining our various products it appears that we may be in for a Triple Shot, perhaps a caramel mocha latte.

Main Animations Used In Discussion – Click For Full Size
3.5 Day Precipitation Type Animation	7.5 Day Precipitation Type Animation

Upcoming Systems

Let’s begin as usual with our 3.5 day Forecast Precipitation Type Animation, then compare that to our 7.5 day product.

The initial frames of the animation show Ophelia slinking through northern Minnesota and into Canada with snows lingering in the northern tier through this evening. The rains we briefly discussed above also continue through the Midwest, south and begin entering the eastern states as evening approaches, with the usual precipitation in the PNW and northern Rockies as well.

Now let’s move along to our ‘Roswell Low’ who for the time being I shall christen “Bubba.” Advance along to F042hr valid 8pm EDT on Thursday. Notice the strong pressure gradient we mentioned during previous discussions build as the frames advance. Hefty winds will sling about Colorado and northern New Mexico as this occurs, with the associated snows. At this frame, notice that Bubba is centered around Santa Fe, and at the next frame F045hr 11pm EDT on Thursday, just north of Roswell. Now here is why I call the Low “Bubba.”

Our discussion on Monday showed that Bubba would swing up towards Chicago and deepen to a respectably low central pressure of 980mb, but our shorter range product disagrees with this morning’s 06z run. Advance along a few frames and see what I mean.

Notice how he slides along on a southeasterly course through Texas with snows in the Panhandle through Kansas, with the opportunity for mixed precipitation thrown into the equation, then beings swinging in a north-northeasterly direction with a very mild central pressure of 1000mb on our last valid frame of F084hr Valid 2pm EDT on Saturday March 28. Well, let’s compare this scenario with our 7.5 day Forecast Precipitation Type Animation, which will also allow us to examine the “triple threat” scenario that seems to be developing.

Hit “stop” and “forward one” until you reach F072hr valid 2am EDT on Saturday, March 28 where Bubba is centered over southern Missouri, but in this scenario with a lower central pressure of 992mb. I’m tempted to lean more towards the development scenario for our medium range product for this system.

By F084hr valid 2pm Saturday, Bubba is centered basically over Springfield Illinois with a central pressure of 990mb. Note the distribution of snow and rain, it will be interesting to see how it develops. On F096hr valid 2am EDT Sunday morning, he is centered over Michigan @ 989mb, and note again the distribution of snows, but here someone else starts to enter the picture. Look just north of Montana on the borders of Alberta and Saskatchewan!

So beginning on Sunday morning we have another zippy clip building up and driving along the northern tier, forecast to reach the Great Lakes states by 8am EDT next Tuesday Morning (F150hr), then over the last few frames, say F168, F174, adn F190 ending Wednesday afternoon, we see a Panhandle hook trying to form over Texas. It will certainly be interesting to see how this triple threat develops!

Thunderstorms on the Horizon

We’ve also discussed the potential for thunderstorms over the next few days. Using our Advisory Center, you can view Convective Outlooks for Day One (today), Day Two (tomorrow), and Day Three (the day after tomorrow).

The essence of the threat for the next few days revolves around the deep trough that we have discussed recently with the result being a respectable return flow of moisture in the deep south and favorable shear environment.

While at the moment today’s Convective Outlook has been issued at the ‘slight’ category, I can see the potential for an upgrade later today to a moderate risk, as the possibility for long lived supercells and tornadoes are definitely in the cards along a wide swath from San Antonio through western Alabama, with the northern extent running along the Arkansas, Louisiana border through Tupelo, MS, and the southern extent being the Gulf of Mexico.

This threat will exist at least through the next three days for today’s region and slightly east, so if you live in and around these areas, today would be a day to pay attention to your NWS Radio (or buy one if you do not own one – I can recommend this Midland or this search will yield alternatives).

Please be sure to view our Advisory and Radar Centers for the latest updates and developments.

As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!

cheers,

–patrick

As of the time of this writing there were 11 tornado reports received by the SPC with 8 reports of injuries associated with yesterday’s activity. In Cass County, Nebraska 5 injuries were reported as an outbuilding blew into a car, and three injuries where a tree fell onto a truck. Another fascinating report was from Staplehurst, Nebraska where 4.25″ hail was reported yesterday which is defined as larger than grapefruit sized hail, but just shy of the 4.5″ necessary to be classified as softball sized hail. While quite large, it does not quite reach the 7″ diameter stone from Aurora, Nebraska that fell in June 2003. Something certainly worthy of mention in the national media, but coverage has been very limited from this storm.

For today however, the risk area covers a wide swath from Illinois, through Missouri, Arkansas, eastern Texas, and northern Louisiana.

Today’s concerns revolve primarily around a shortwave that will accelerate through the bottom of the trough over the plains this evening and evolve into the region defined by the risk area. The shortwave and a strong associated low level jet will translate into a very favorable shear environment later this afternoon and this evening. However precipitable water becomes another issue for today, otherwise with the well rounded hodographs defined by the very favorable shear environment, today would have been a moderate risk day.

Please be sure to view our Advisory and Radar Centers for the latest updates and developments.

As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!

cheers,