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San Joaquin Valley - Tule Fog

posted by Patrick L. Francis on 11.Dec.2008 No Comments

SuperSat Image

Early last week I saved one of our supersat images of the San Joaquin Valley experiencing the seasonal phenomena called “Tule Fog”: a sometimes fierce radiation fog that forms in the late fall to early winter months in the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys.

In this image (left) the Tule fog is being held in place by a strong temperature inversion outlining the valley floor, while snows are visible in the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevadas such as Mt. Ritter, North Palisade, and Mt. Whitney.

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Where In The World Can We Go To Be Warm?

posted by Patrick L. Francis on 20.Nov.2008 No Comments

As I was flitting about town today running various errands, I would overhear people complaining about the cold temperatures, and think quietly to myself how I agree with their assessment. During my lunch at Bob Evans, a nice couple sitting across the aisle was discussing this very issue, as a woman said to her husband “I wonder where in the world we could go that is warm today?” So I thought, why don’t I answer that question for HAMweather fans? =)

One product, or perhaps better stated ’suite’ of products, that we have not released yet is a vast array of computer model products that I created for various customers over the years, and for my introductory students to use during classes for forecasting purposes, where I would teach my advanced students the techniques necessary for creating computer graphics, and using advanced techniques for analyzing atmospheric and climate conditions over space and time.

Since the lovely couple at Bob Evans brought up the topic of world temperatures, today I decided to share with you worldwide forecast surface temperatures, so you can decide where you might like to go =)

The animation below is the GFS forecast surface temperatures at 3 hour intervals out through next Friday (November 28) at 6z. In other words a forecast out 180 hours = 7.5 days out. When viewing the image people often say “it looks like the bright colors are moving along the image,” which indeed they are. This is the affect of daytime heating as the sun’s rays move from “right to left” across Earth’s surface, or of course from “east to west” due to Earth’s rotation. Also note that this image has not been made to look “pretty,” it is just raw data that I play with from time to time =)

HAMmodel World Surface Temperature Animation

HAMmodel World Surface Tempature Animation

It is fun to view various aspects of temperature changes as the day progresses. For example, examine the temperature changes along Andes Mountains of western South America, is a distinct pattern present due to its elevation?

Can you see other similar features around the world? Perhaps the Mexican plateau (a.k.a Mesa Central), the Himalayas and the Tibetan High, the Atlas Mountains of Morroco and Tunisia, the Great Rift Valley and Ethiopian Highlands of Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia, the Australian Alps east of the great Murray-Darling Basin, and of course North America’s famous Rocky Mountains plus many more. For those with even a basic interest in weather, viewing the animation over and over again can truly be an educational experience!

So, let’s get back to the question, where in the world can we go to be warm? Well, quite a few places! Of course local politics of an area you may wish to visit may play a role, and at least in my case, the costs of travel involved can be astronomical. For example, the Great Barrier Reef is one of our world’s most beautiful natural resources, and is listed as one of the seven natural wonders of the world (wiki). There are many destinations to choose from, but for this example we will use Cairns, Queensland, Australia. Note the HAMweather forecast shows highs in the 80’s for the forseeable future, with lows, oh how horrible, in the high 70s°F.

Amazingly I just conducted a quick search on Yahoo travel, and learned that flight costs vary between an astounding low value of $2,980 round-trip on Qantas Airways, to an outrageous $21,554 via Japan Airlines and United.

Rather than rambling on, I will allow you to view our animation and determine where you might like to go! I can recommend Belize (HAMweather Forecast), and of course Aruba (HAMweather Forecast), where a former graduate collegue of mine is a meteorologist. So where would you like to go! =)

More on weather tomorrow, as today I dream of a vacation I’ll never be able to take! =)

cheers,

–patrick

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Weather Update, November 7, 2008: Blizzard Begone! Paloma Wants Cigars =)

posted by Patrick L. Francis on 07.Nov.2008 1 Comment

Our Blizzard Is No More
	The blizzard warnings have all been canceled this afternoon for North and South Dakota. As our HWwarnings graphic at left shows, only a few winter weather advisories, flood warnings, and wind advisories remain for the region.
Some respectable snow totals have been reported for the event. As of 9am this morning Bismarck reports the following for North Dakota. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 940 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2008 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT… LISTED BELOW ARE THE MOST RECENT SNOW REPORTS RECEIVED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK. THESE VALUES REPRESENT THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AS OF 930 AM CST FRIDAY NOVEMBER 7. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE TODAY. FURTHER STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS REPORTS ARE RECEIVED. ORRIN...................22.0 INCHES VOLTAIRE................20.0 INCHES TOWNER 2 NE.............15.0 INCHES VELVA 3 NE..............13.0 INCHES ESTIMATED DRAKE 9 NE..............12.0 INCHES ESTIMATED BALFOUR 3 SW............12.0 INCHES ESTIMATED LOGAN ..................12.0 INCHES RUGBY...................10.5 INCHES BEULAH 2 NW.............9.4 INCHES BISMARCK WFO............9.2 INCHES WASHBURN................9.0 INCHES ESTIMATED TUTTLE 12 NE............8.0 INCHES ESTIMATED MINOT 1 SOUTH...........9.5 INCHES MAX.....................7.0 INCHES ESTIMATED FORT YATES .............6.5 INCHES WATAUGA 13 N............6.0 INCHES ESTIMATED LANSFORD................5.0 INCHES CARSON..................4.5 INCHES STREETER ...............4.0 INCHES LINTON 5NW..............4.0 INCHES JAMESTOWN...............3.0 INCHES BOTTINEAU...............3.0 INCHES TROTTERS ...............2.0 INCHES
On the Tropical Side of Things

On the tropical front Paloma is gaining strength and continuing its track towards Cuba, surely to obtain the fine cigars that we in the states are not allowed to buy! As previously stated Paloma will not impact the states, but with the latest forecast suggesting the possibility of reaching a CAT 3 at least it is a little more exciting =) Be sure to keep track of all the activities with the HAMweather Tropical Products section! The latest discussion reads as follows: TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI NOV 07 2008 -[snip]- BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. …SPECIAL FEATURE… HURRICANE PALOMA IS CENTERED NEAR 18.4N 81.3W AT 07/1800 UTC OR ABOUT 50 NM S OF GRAND CAYMAN MOVING NNE AT 5 KT. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS 974 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/ WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE / ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN ALL QUADRANTS AND WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM THE TIP OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N79W TO 21N82W. PALOMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY WITH PALOMA EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TODAY… AND POSSIBLY REACH CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. -[snip]-

The possibility of snow is still in our future for next week, beginning in the west and later into the great plains, and finally the eastern U.S. I will let you know what the models are thinking on that front next week. If things look quiet overall, I will resume the requested postings of the IPCC’s fourth report.

Have a great weekend!

As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe.

cheers,

–patrick

Posted in Education, General, Meteorology, News, Tropical, Weather | 1 Comment »

Weather Update, November 6, 2008: More Blizzard! Storm Reports, and Tropical Blah

posted by Patrick L. Francis on 06.Nov.2008 No Comments

Heavy snow continues to pummel the northern Great Plains this morning as the blizzard warnings, winter storm warnings, and various watches have been extended past the eastern edges of the Dakotas, and south into Nebraska. Below are two screen captures of our HAMrad II Precipitation Type Radar (click each for full size). At left is our Ptype radar overlain with isobars and frontal depictions, which is always fun to view especially for those with an interest in precipitation type and location with respect to areas of low pressure and frontal boundaries. Bottom right is our standard Ptype radar covering the northern Great Plains without the overlays for a clearer view of location.

HAMrad II Precipitation Type Radars November 6, 2008
HAMrad II Ptype with Fronts & Isobars	HAMrad II Ptype Standard Northern Plains

Watches and Warnings for the Northern Great Plains
	Our HWwarnings Product at left (click for full size) displays how the watches and warnings have been expanded for the Northern Great Plains since yesterday’s article. Most notably is the degree to which blizzard warnings have been extended to cover more of the state, and how the winter storm warning has been officially extended into Nebraska Pahnhandle and northcentral portion of the state. Sample watches and warnings are provided below. Additionally, note the extent of the High Wind Warnings on the HWwarning plot at left, and compare to the HAMrad II with frontal depictions and isobars above. Where the isobars are close together this is termed a “pressure gradient” (PGF is not really a force, but the acceleration of atmospheric mass due to pressure differences (ergo force per unit mass). Is there a similarity to the pressure gradient depicted above and the high wind warnings / blizzard warnings (requires sustained falling/blowing snow with winds => 35mph for at least 3 hours) at left?
Sample Watches and Warnings November 6, 2008
North Dakota Blizzard and Winter Storm Warnings
	NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 1037 AM CST THU NOV 6 2008 BLIZZARD AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A POWERFUL WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SEVERE WINTER WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FOR SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING…AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER NORTH WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH… AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH… WILL CREATE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TONIGHT. TRAVEL WILL BE VERY DANGEROUS IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE. FOR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA… THE STORM HAS EXITED THAT REGION AND THE WARNING HAS BEEN REMOVED. SOME FLURRIES AND GUSTY WINDS MAY PERSIST. FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA…HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG NORTH WINDS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH FALLING SNOW TO CREATE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. TRAVEL IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED. FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA… AREAS OF SNOW WILL REDEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS… THEN INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH… AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH… BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SIX TO TEN INCHES OF SNOW… WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH… AND VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO ARE LIKELY DURING THE HEIGHT OF THIS STORM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. DELAY TRAVEL IF POSSIBLE AND MAKE OTHER PREPARATIONS FOR THIS STORM. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL… HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED… STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.
South Dakota Blizzard Warning
	URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 929 AM CST THU NOV 6 2008 A VERY STRONG FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY. RAINFALL WILL WRAP AROUND FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER… WHERE THE RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD BE IN A BAND OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW TONIGHT… AND WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH… DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR A COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. THE BLIZZARD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CST FRIDAY. AREAS OF RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY ALONG WITH INCREASING VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BY TONIGHT. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 45 MPH TO PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. EXPECT THE VISIBILITY TO DROP TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES THIS EVENING WITH STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 7 INCHES EXPECTED. A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS… MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST… HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED… STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.
What Does NAM Say Today?
	Our NAM 84 Hour Forecast Snowdepth Animation (12z run 3 hr increments) shows that NAM has had fairly consistent thinking throughout this latest snow event. As an FYI, for those not keeping track, this is the third blizzard event we have had thus far this year, and it is only November 6th! Woohoo! Or perhaps not woohoo for those that are forced to suffer the severe weather, my apologies! NAM extends the breadth of snowfall slightly more east today as time progresses, but fairly similar to previous runs. Of interesting note is the teenie tiny bit of forecast snowfall in the Appalachians of West Virginia at the end of the run, or around 00z Sunday.
Significant Snow in our Future?
GFS is currently thinking that a whiff of snow will pass through Kansas, Missouri, and into Illinois at the beginning of next week eventually leading to light snow in upstate New York by this time next week. I’ll keep an eye on things and provide an update as we get closer to that time. As of now, it does not appear to be a significant event.

Storm Reports from Yesterday?
As of the time of this writing, there was one tornado report from yesterday in Stone County, Missouri. The report stated that the tornado occurred east southeast of Shell Knob, with a path one and one half miles long, and 100 yards wide, with a preliminary rating of EF0. There were a total of 85 hail reports, and 43 wind reports. The largest hail report was 2.50″ from Canadian County, Oklahama, with numerous other large hail reports and hail streaks. Many reports of tree limbs down, shingles off roofs, and downed power lines as well. For fun I dug through youtube to see if any videos were uploaded from yesterday’s events, and have included a few for you below.
	Dogs playing in hail… Mommy thinks the water is too cold! =)
	Hail falling in Moore, Oklahama The poor trampoline! =)
	Oklahoma City Hail ! Nice closeup shot of hailstone =)

Today the SPC is calling for a slight chance of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in Louisiana. You may view the HAMweather Convective Outlook section for areal depictions.

Tropical Storm Paloma finally pulled itself together, and is forecast to head towards Cuba and northeastward from there, thus avoiding the United States.

As always, stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!

cheers,

–patrick

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Weather Update, November 5, 2008: Rain, Tornadoes, and Blizzards Oh My!

posted by Patrick L. Francis on 05.Nov.2008 2 Comments

What a difference a day makes in the world of weather forecasting! Remember yesterday I stated that the watches and warnings issued by the NWS were from the previous days NAM run, and perhaps some adjustments might be needed? Low and behold, the adjustments have been made. Today the NWS has expanded their areal coverage of winter storm watches, blizzard watches, and blizzard warnings to the general area covered by NAM (again from yesterday’s run as you were previously shown). So now we have various snow advisories and warnings for the majority of North and South Dakota extending a tad south into Nebraska, and east into Wyoming and Montana (note graphic at left, click for full size).

Below is a screen cap of our HAMrad II Precipitation Type Radar product for the Northern Great Plains showing snow in the upper elevations of the Black Hills with liquid precipitation along the Cheyenne River just northwest of the badlands extending outward.

Sampling of Watches and Warnings active as of ~ 1pm November 5, 2008
Blizzard Warning for North Dakota
	NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 1105 AM CST WED NOV 5 2008 A MAJOR WINTER STORM SYSTEM FOR NORTH DAKOTA A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY FRIDAY. THIS SLOW MOVING STORM WILL BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT…THURSDAY…AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SIX TO TWELVE INCHES OF SNOW…WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH…AND VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO ARE LIKELY DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER WILL ALSO STRIKE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT… WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW… WINDS TO 40 MPH AND GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THESE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY MOVE EAST INTO THE JAMES RIVER AREA THURSDAY. THE STORM WILL BRING RAIN THIS AFTERNOON…AND THEN THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO HEAVY WET SNOW…FIRST IN THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON… AND THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION TONIGHT. FREEZING RAIN MAY ALSO PRECEDE THE CHANGE TO SNOW. TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. PLEASE RECONSIDER TRAVEL PLANS AND MAKE OTHER PREPARATIONS FOR THE STORM. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL…HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED…STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.
Blizzard Warning for South Dakota
	NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 1009 AM MST WED NOV 5 2008 A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW IN NORTHWEST WYOMING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND STRENGTHEN OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF WYOMING FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOWS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BLACK HILLS WHERE 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE PLAINS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA 6 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE PLAINS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY MIDDAY…WITH EVEN STRONGER WINDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW WILL LEAD TO GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
Flood Watch for North Dakota
	NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 1151 AM CST WED NOV 5 2008 POTENTIAL FLOODING ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY… AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MEANDERS TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS…THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AFFECTING THE RED RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE AREA HAS BEEN RELATIVELY DRY AS OF LATE… SOILS ARE STILL NEARLY SATURATED AS EVAPORATION IS AT A SEASONAL MINIMUM. AS A RESULT… HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL SATURATE THE SOILS VERY QUICKLY AND GENERATE RUNOFF. AS THIS RUNOFF MAKES ITS WAY TO THE RIVER SYSTEMS…WHICH ARE NEAR RECORD HIGH BASE FLOWS FOR NOVEMBER…RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE. MODERATE FLOODING AT SOME POINTS ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES IS POSSIBLE.
Current Model Thoughts
NAM 84 Hour Forecast Snowdepth Product (3 hour increments)
	There are some similarities to yesterday’s run with today’s snowdepth animation product (click image at left for full size). There are some differences with degree and breadth of areal coverage of forecast snowdepth based upon subtle changes in the timing of cold air advection that have been adjusted since yesterday (note below).
NAM 84 Hour Forecast Two Meter Temperatures (3 hour increments)
	Notice at left (click for full size) while viewing the NAM 84 Hour 2 meter temperature forecast animation (at 3 hour increments) the “temperature of interest” isotherms plotted onto the graphics. View closely the 32°F isotherm (red line) and the propagation of colder air at the surface. Pockets of “warmer air” are shown to remain (surface - boundary interface) as the air progresses adjusting the timing of associated frozen precipitation (snow). Additionally, progression is slightly different than shown yesterday accounting for adjustments in the breadth and areal coverage of forecast snowdepth above. However, it is ‘basically the same’ as yesterday =) Will more adjustments in watches and warnings be needed by tomorrow? =)
NAM 84 Hour Forecast Liquid Precipitation (3 hour increments)
	Our NAM 84 Hour Liquid Precipitation Forecast Animation (3 hour increments) displays the wet weather ahead for the Pacific Northwest as a respectable warm air mass propagates inland. Additionally our small area of low pressure is forecast to continue sliding northward along the east coast, and the strong precipitation shield that will extend from the enclosed area of lower pressure in the Dakotas is shown, from which tornadoes are very likely (notice the east central great plains and east / south into tomorrow).
Tornadoes, Hail, and Flying Cows Oh My!
SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook	SPC Probabilistic Tornado Product

The Storm Prediction Center finally upgraded their Day One Convective Outlook to include a small moderate risk area for the day. Convective Initiation will likely be more westward than they predict, but importantly, those in the forecast area of concern should take extreme caution. The SPC Public Statement is below in its entirety. NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1039 AM CST WED NOV 05 2008 SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT… THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA ELSEWHERE… SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM… EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER MO VALLEY. A STRONG COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT. A WARM/MOIST UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED FROM ERN SD/CENTRAL NEB TO SERN CO WILL FUEL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET… CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SCENTRAL KS/NCENTRAL OK NEAR THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE INTERSECTION. ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE SOUTHWARD ALONG DRY LINE TO THE TX/OK BORDER BY THIS EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS TRACKING NEWD ACROSS SERN KS/NERN OK THRU THE EVENING WITH POSSIBLE STRONG TORNADOES. IN ADDITION DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS FROM ERN NEB SWD THRU OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT EXTENDING EWD INTO LOWER MO VALLEY AND THE OZARKS TONIGHT. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO…TELEVISION…AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES… WARNINGS… AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.