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 Storm Reports - Severe Weather Center |
Our Severe Weather Center shows a total of three tornado related storm reports so far for the activity in the deep south today.
Please be sure to view our Advisory and Radar Centers for the latest updates and developments. As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe! cheers, –patrick
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 HAMweather Advisory Center  HAMweather Radar Center Southeastern U.S.  HAMweather Advisory Center  HAMweather Advisory Center  Snow in Chehalis, WA credit: Jude3 - komonews.com |
The thunderstorm threat we discussed yesterday has evolved in the deep south, with a tornado watch that extends from southeastern Mississippi through the midlands of Alabama to the northeastern extent of the state. Shear exhibits the same trends as discussed, where vertical profiles favor linear formations with embedded supercells and the possibility of tornadoes due to low level shear even with the marginal thermodynamics. The threat will continue through the evening as the line continues to move east, with the additional threat of flash flooding. At the time of this writing, our Advisory Center (note top left) shows flash flood warnings, areal flood warnings, and flash flood watches for most of Mississippi and Alabama where rainfall totals have averaged between 2-4″ with locally higher amounts. Reports of roadways becoming impassable have already surfaced, please do not try to drive through them if you are in the area. The mixed precipitation of freezing rain / sleet we discussed yesterday is continuing on its forecast trek through the northeast. Freezing rain advisories and ice storm warnings have popped up in the forecast zones. A sample ice storm warning appears as follows: WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOLLOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET WILL OCCUR DURING THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN LATER TONIGHT. A SIGNIFICANT Heavy snows will continue for the northern Rockies over the next few days as Pacific moisture continues to funnel into the region. As mentioned yesterday snow levels are at higher levels (6k or so), however it is very likely that accumulations will surge past the foot mark, approaching two feet. Previous accumulations and high freezing levels have cause avalanche warnings to be issued for much of the pacific northwest, with the unusual use of the word “many” in the warning below:
INCREASINGLY HEAVY SNOW OR RAIN RISING FREEZING LEVELS AND MANY NATURAL OR HUMAN TRIGGERED SLIDES SHOULD BECOME CERTAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LARGE DESTRUCTIVE AVALANCHES. SUCH AVALANCHES MAY INVOLVE MOST OF THIS SEASONS SNOWPACK AND RANGE UP TO 6 TO 10 FEET OR MORE. ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF CLIMAX AVALANCHES RELEASING TO THE GROUND IS EXPECTED ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND THE NORTHEAST WASHINGTON CASCADES THE OVERWHELMING AMOUNT OF STRESS ON AS A RESULT BACK COUNTRY TRAVEL IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN SHOULD BE AVOIDED TUESDAY AFTERNON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND TRAVELERS SHOULD CONFINE TRAVEL TO RELATIVELY FLAT TERRAIN WELL AWAY FROM AVALANCHE PATH RUNOUTS. NOTE THAT NO CONTROL WORK IS PERFORMED OUTSIDE OF HIGHWAY CORRIDORS AND SKI AREA BOUNDARIES SO EXPECT BACK COUNTRY CONDITIONS WHEN LEAVING SUCH AREAS. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AS CONDITIONS WARRANT. PLEASE VISIT WWW.NWAC.US FOR DETAILS. –[snip]–
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Please be sure to view our Advisory and Radar Centers for the latest updates and developments.
As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!
cheers,
–patrick
 Forecast Temperatures Animation  Forecast Precipitation Type Animation |
Deep bitter arctic cold opens the first work week of the new year for the Northern Great Plains and higher elevations of the Rockies (temperature animation). Fortunately those temperatures will move out fairly quickly, affording locations such as Rapid City, South Dakota (forecast) to see temperatures above freezing for the balance of the week! On the other side of the temperature spectrum Miami, Florida will continue to bask in the warm glow of tropical temperatures with highs in the 80s through Wednesday, then cooling a bit with highs only in the mid 70s Thursday and Friday (forecast).
Another opportunity for freezing rain and sleet also opens the first week of the new year, with the mixed precipitation beginning in central Texas today, and moving northeast in the direction of the Nation’s Capital by Wednesday Morning. While accumulations are expected in Texas and Arkansas, the heaviest totals with this system will be in Northern Virginia, West Virginia, and southern Pennsylvania. This morning’s precipitation type forecast product will give you an idea of the progression of the system. The Pacific Northwest will continue to be pummeled with snow as a strong jet funnels in copious amounts of moisture, while eastward facing slopes will experience additional enhancement with a 45 knot low level jet, increasing upslope snows. Temperatures are such that most snowfall will be above the 3000 foot range initially, but warmer temperatures will accompany the westerly winds allowing the threshold to climb to around 6000 feet or so later today. You may view our precipitation type animation to gain a better feel. The south will be facing rains today and tomorrow, with the potential for thunderstorms tomorrow as well. At the moment, instability appears to be marginal, but shear is reasonably impressive at least in the vertical. This translates to the likelihood of linear bowing structures with embedded supercells, with accompanying wind threat and perhaps tornadoes since low level shear is present at the forecast level. |
Please be sure to view our Advisory and Radar Centers for the latest updates and developments.
As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!
cheers,
–patrick
 Snow / Rain / Mixed Potential |
 Forecast Precipitation Type Animation |
Blizzard warnings in northcentral Montana will be lifted this afternoon to be replaced by winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories as the system responsible ejects into the northern plains, and leaves in its wake snows and cooler temperatures within the inverted trough axis leaving the central plains with subfreezing temperatures over the weekend, a tough blow after the mild temperatures formerly enjoyed.
This will allow the deep south to laugh heartily as they enjoy temperatures well above normal as onshore flow streams a comforting blanket of warmth into the region. Places such as New Orleans will enjoy highs in the mid 70s through the weekend, while Minot, ND will have lows reaching nearly -20ºF, with wind chills at very serious levels.
No one seems to be discussing the potential for freezing rain / sleet / mixed precipitation we discussed on New Years Eve. The potential is still there as is demonstrated by the afternoon run of our Forecast Precipitation Type product. Today’s run advances the potential to earlier Saturday than Wednesday showed, but surprisingly maintains the same general area beginning around the Iowa Nebraska border, and since we can see further out with a later run, the track leads through New England on Monday morning.
As this system propagates, areas north of the mixed will receive snows ranging from a few inches to potentially six or more in Minnesota and the Michigan U.P., while areas south will receive liquid precipitation. Speaking of the south, thunderstorms will fire along the central and western Gulf tomorrow, with additional potential next week. However I do not see the “Finger of God” (ref: movie “twister”, totally inaccurate, but at least has Helen Hunt) for tomorrow at least.
The PNW will have another jet moving in as the weekend ends adding another foot or so the the Cascades, Idaho, and Oregon. If things look interesting I will write more over the weekend.
Please be sure to view our Advisory and Radar Centers for the latest updates and developments.
As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!
cheers,
–patrick
 HAMweather Advisory Center |
 The Ice Man Cometh? |
Over the next few days the Pacific Northwest will be pounded yet again with heavy snow and rain as a strong pacific jet funnels moisture into the region. Heaviest snows will of course be in the mountainous regions of Washington, Northern Idaho, and Northwest Wyoming, with new accumulations reaching well above the two foot mark, and likely reaching more than three.
Also a concern with this system is flooding in the lower elevations and coastal regions of the PNW, as our Advisory Center shows, flood watches have already been posted calling for rainfall totals up to 3″ in the valleys, and up to 7″ along the coastal range.
Significant snows will not occur over the next few days for the rest of the country, however a dusting along the northern tier will occur as a weak low ambles through. The interesting story is over the weekend however.
In running our HAMweather Precipitation Type forecast product this afternoon, a possibility for another ice storm seems to be in the future. I have created a loop of the product here for you to view, that allows you control of the animation with such parameters as speed, single frame advancement, and so forth.
When viewing the product note the timestamp on the bottom of “Valid Time,” and the red swath that appears in the middle of the country late Saturday evening into Sunday morning where the animation ends. It seems the models have an idea the possibility of freezing rain / sleet / mixed precipitation is in store for the region before the weekend is out, so if you have travel plans, please stay abreast of weather conditions because if she does come together it could be an ugly situation =)
New Years Eve Midnight Forecasts for Select Cities:
Please be sure to view our Advisory and Radar Centers for the latest updates and developments.
As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!
cheers,
–patrick
