Our Radar Center places the center of circulation over northern Minnesota at the time of this writing with a central pressure of 993MB (use ‘fronts’ overlay checkbox on right) and medium strength snows flanking the western edge of the low. Rain extends from the Great Lakes states into the deep south amidst a mishmash of airmass interactions, however many areas of the south can certainly use the precipitation to aid in refilling their reservoirs.

Last Friday we mentioned the next system that is forecast to develop, our “Roswell low.” This morning examining our various products it appears that we may be in for a Triple Shot, perhaps a caramel mocha latte.

Main Animations Used In Discussion – Click For Full Size
3.5 Day Precipitation Type Animation	7.5 Day Precipitation Type Animation

Upcoming Systems

Let’s begin as usual with our 3.5 day Forecast Precipitation Type Animation, then compare that to our 7.5 day product.

The initial frames of the animation show Ophelia slinking through northern Minnesota and into Canada with snows lingering in the northern tier through this evening. The rains we briefly discussed above also continue through the Midwest, south and begin entering the eastern states as evening approaches, with the usual precipitation in the PNW and northern Rockies as well.

Now let’s move along to our ‘Roswell Low’ who for the time being I shall christen “Bubba.” Advance along to F042hr valid 8pm EDT on Thursday. Notice the strong pressure gradient we mentioned during previous discussions build as the frames advance. Hefty winds will sling about Colorado and northern New Mexico as this occurs, with the associated snows. At this frame, notice that Bubba is centered around Santa Fe, and at the next frame F045hr 11pm EDT on Thursday, just north of Roswell. Now here is why I call the Low “Bubba.”

Our discussion on Monday showed that Bubba would swing up towards Chicago and deepen to a respectably low central pressure of 980mb, but our shorter range product disagrees with this morning’s 06z run. Advance along a few frames and see what I mean.

Notice how he slides along on a southeasterly course through Texas with snows in the Panhandle through Kansas, with the opportunity for mixed precipitation thrown into the equation, then beings swinging in a north-northeasterly direction with a very mild central pressure of 1000mb on our last valid frame of F084hr Valid 2pm EDT on Saturday March 28. Well, let’s compare this scenario with our 7.5 day Forecast Precipitation Type Animation, which will also allow us to examine the “triple threat” scenario that seems to be developing.

Hit “stop” and “forward one” until you reach F072hr valid 2am EDT on Saturday, March 28 where Bubba is centered over southern Missouri, but in this scenario with a lower central pressure of 992mb. I’m tempted to lean more towards the development scenario for our medium range product for this system.

By F084hr valid 2pm Saturday, Bubba is centered basically over Springfield Illinois with a central pressure of 990mb. Note the distribution of snow and rain, it will be interesting to see how it develops. On F096hr valid 2am EDT Sunday morning, he is centered over Michigan @ 989mb, and note again the distribution of snows, but here someone else starts to enter the picture. Look just north of Montana on the borders of Alberta and Saskatchewan!

So beginning on Sunday morning we have another zippy clip building up and driving along the northern tier, forecast to reach the Great Lakes states by 8am EDT next Tuesday Morning (F150hr), then over the last few frames, say F168, F174, adn F190 ending Wednesday afternoon, we see a Panhandle hook trying to form over Texas. It will certainly be interesting to see how this triple threat develops!

Thunderstorms on the Horizon

We’ve also discussed the potential for thunderstorms over the next few days. Using our Advisory Center, you can view Convective Outlooks for Day One (today), Day Two (tomorrow), and Day Three (the day after tomorrow).

The essence of the threat for the next few days revolves around the deep trough that we have discussed recently with the result being a respectable return flow of moisture in the deep south and favorable shear environment.

While at the moment today’s Convective Outlook has been issued at the ’slight’ category, I can see the potential for an upgrade later today to a moderate risk, as the possibility for long lived supercells and tornadoes are definitely in the cards along a wide swath from San Antonio through western Alabama, with the northern extent running along the Arkansas, Louisiana border through Tupelo, MS, and the southern extent being the Gulf of Mexico.

This threat will exist at least through the next three days for today’s region and slightly east, so if you live in and around these areas, today would be a day to pay attention to your NWS Radio (or buy one if you do not own one – I can recommend this Midland or this search will yield alternatives).

Please be sure to view our Advisory and Radar Centers for the latest updates and developments.

As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!

cheers,

–patrick

In addition to the blizzard warnings and winter storm warnings covering our storm for today, the SPC has issued a Moderate Risk in their Convective Outlook category to cover the thunderstorms we said would also develop today. The moderate risk area is centered over southeastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma. More on this and the second storm we said would develop last week below.

On our next forecast hour valid ending at 8am EDT this morning, the rains are forecast to continue in the same general areas, with mixed precipitation still in the cards for NE Minnesota. Our Precipitation Type Radar still validates this forecast, as does the Freezing Rain Advisory for the state, calling for about 0.25″ of accumulation.

On our next frame valid 11am this morning, notice that the area of lower pressure we discussed all week is forecast to deepen to 991mb, and also dip a tad to the south. In this case it is not forecast to become another ‘Dodge City’ Low as we have had on the last several iterations this winter season, but instead settle near one of my favorite Nebraska cities: McCook, Nebraska. Notice however, if you choose the forecast link for McCook provided, that the blizzard warnings and winter weather advisories are to the north and west of the city, with only wind advisories active for them. This revolves around the previous discussions we have held on the nature of temperature advection and precipitation patterns associated with areas of lower pressure and the nature of their propagation.

Forecast hour F012 valid 2pm this afternoon shows the low beginning its northeasterly trek and a few splotches of rain showing up in Kansas and Nebraska. This could be an area of convective initiation for the thunderstorms we have discussed will develop today. Also notice that as the low begins to propagate northeasterly, the precipitation shield for snow also begins to extend eastward into Nebraska and South Dakota. As the low heads north and east, so does the snow on the western flank of the low.

Forward ahead to F018hr valid 8pm EDT this evening, and notice the snows are beginning to extend into South Dakota, where the breadth of the snows match fairly nicely the areas covered by the blizzard warnings active this morning.

By tomorrow morning F030hr, valid 8am EDT central pressure for the low is forecast to weaken to 995mb, with the snows extend fro NE Colorado NNE through Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, with a smidgen of extreme Northwestern Minnesota.

As 8pm tomorrow rolls around the low becomes considerably weaker with a central pressure of 1000mb, while snows continue to fall over eastern North and South Dakota with and portions of western Minnesota. By 2pm on Wednesday Afternoon (F060hr) she begins heading into Canada with a central pressure of 996mb, and only portions of snow remaining for the U.P. of Michigan and extreme northeastern Minnesota.

Snow accumulations will be most impressive today, with at least a foot of snow occuring in eastern Wyoming, western South Dakota, and a tad of southwestern North Dakota. Tomorrows totals we be less impressive with the best chance for accumulations of around 8″ or so occuring in central and eastern North Dakota and a smidgen in northwestern Minnesota. Now for the thunderstorms we discussed would occur.

Thunderstorms for Today
Above we mentioned that the SPC has issued Moderate Risk in their Convective Outlook Category for today. The bullseye for their outlook is southeastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma, and their tornado probabilistic category contains a hatched area directly in that bullseye which means that there is a 10% or greater probability for an EF2-EF5 tornado within their defined region.

The reason this outlook has been issued are the shear parameters we discussed would develop today as a very impressive jet streak streams into the region this afternoon as our low above begins ascending into Nebraska with the triple point development we said would occur.

With the impressive 50knt+ deep layer shear, very long lived supercells can develop with sustained updrafts. Now while precipitable water is not very impressive, and a rather hefty cap is present especially over central and eastern Kansas, if storms do develop in the favored environment with the deep layer shear, the strong updraft environment will favor very large hail, very strong winds, and tornadoes if they burst and can sustain themselves, which seems likely.

The storms will likely continue through the evening and into tomorrow morning as additional activity develops both in northern Texas, and existing convective activity heads into Missouri. If you live in and around these areas, today would be a day to pay attention to your NWS Radio (or buy one if you do not own one – I can recommend this Midland or this search will yield alternatives).

More Stuff On The Way?
Last Friday we said it looks like another storm system is likely to form, and this morning’s run seems to verify that prediction. Using our 7.5 Day Precipitation Type Animation, choose “stop” and “forward one” until you reach F090hr Valid 8pm EDT on Thursday, March 26. Notice we now have another area of lower pressure centered north of Roswell, NM, perhaps our alien friends have a weather machine they are using!

Recall this product is at 6 hour intervals instead of 3, so our next frame is valid Friday morning at 2am EDT. Our low has trucked from Roswell into central Oklahoma rather quickly hasn’t it? Well here is where she gets interesting. Forward a few more frames until you reach F114hr Valid 8pm on Friday Evening. Notice she has dug to 990mb causing the more tightly packed isobars (wind), with snow along the northern and western fringes? Well what happens next?

F120hr valid 2am Saturday morning she digs all the way to 985mb and has settled herself over northern Missouri, where by the next frame F126r Valid 8am EDT on Saturday she digs to 980mb and is centered over northwestern Illinois. Whoo Boy! She could be a good one!

By 2pm Saturday afternoon (F132) she maintains an impressive central pressure of 981mb, with snows forecast to possibly reach Chicago, and most of Missouri through Minnesota will be unhappy by this point. Where 8am EDT on Sunday morning she is still holding together centered over northern Lake Michigan with snows trailing around her northern and western flank, and by F162hr valid 8pm EDT Sunday Evening, she begins to weaken a tad but snows should still be falling.

It will be interesting to see in later runs if she digs as deeply as this morning’s run forecasts her to do. Temperatures associated with both of these systems can be viewed on our 7.5 Day Forecast Maximum and Minimum temperature animations. The highpoint being that the northern through the southern plains will endure wintry conditions for the majority of the week.

Please be sure to view our Advisory and Radar Centers for the latest updates and developments.

As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!

cheers,

–patrick

Let’s start today with a short term outlook from today through the weekend with our 3.5 Day Forecast Ptype Animation beginning with F006hr valid 2pm EDT today. Recall on all our animation products that each window of time represents what is forecast to occur prior to the valid time at the bottom and ending at that time. In the case of this product, it is a three hour window since each frame in the animation is at three hour intervals.

So beginning at 2pm, we see snows with the possibility of mixed precipitation in northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. This is verified in our Radar Center with our Precipitation Type Radar. Recall with that product you can overlay interesting fields onto the radar product such as current frontal locations, current warnings, current conditions via station models, and change the background to a flat background instead of topo and so forth.

Our Advisory Center also shows a winter weather advisory for northeastern Minnesota associated with the snows valid until 6pm EDT this evening calling for an average of 2-4″ of snow in the region, with higher amounts possible in some areas.

As we advance through F024hr valid 8am EDT on Saturday morning we see the snows progress in a generally ESE direction into Michigan and southern Ontario where by Sunday F048hr Valid 8am EDT chances for snow will exist mostly in the northeastern states from New York State through Maine with some spotty remnants in northern Michigan, where Maine will have a chance for occasional snows through the day, most will be cleared off for the balance by the afternoon.

Looking off to the PNW and back to our first image of F003hr valid 11am EDT today, we see some rains and snows moving in again as we previously discussed would be associated with another surge. Advancing through F012hr valid 8pm EDT this evening, precipitation picks up a bit in the PNW with snows becoming more developed in mountainous terrains. Totals for today will be around 5-7″ or so in the Cascades with the possibility of larger accumulations at higher elevations. At this point the rains we discussed for New Mexico and SW Texas also begin to develop.

Things begin to get interesting for the PNW around F027 Valid 11am EDT Saturday Morning as available moisture begins precipitating as rain in lower elevations in northern California and Oregon, as well as areas of the Northern Rockies. Here as the trough begins to deepen and propagate eastward for the developing storm we discussed for the beginning of next week, excellent orographic forcing will aid in more impressive snows for the Cascade and Sierra mountains up to around 8″ or so for the day, where by Sunday at least another 8″ is likely, with snows also occurring along nearly the entire stretch of the Rockies as everything sweeps inland, albeit with lower overall accumulations with the most impressive totals inland occurring over southwest Montana, and northeast Utah.

By the time late Sunday and early Monday rolls around things become interesting, as the storm that we have discussed coming up next week refuses to die in the models. The last two frames of our 3.5 day Ptype Animation F072 valid 8am EDT Monday, March 23 we see our low over northeastern Colorado forecast to be at 991mb with rains extending along the majority of the northern plains, and fairly tightly packed isobars which translates to winds.

Advance through F081 valid 5pm EDT next Monday, and she is forecast to dig a little deeper to 985mb with rains running along the northern and eastern flanks, and snows on the west, which basically means we will see a triple point develop. The little blotches of green are likely thunderstorms that will form. While general thunderstorms will occur over the weekend, the big ones as we’ve discussed all week will likely occur on Monday unless things develop differently from what the models are currently calling for.

Advance to our last frame for the 3.5 day Ptype Animation F084 Valid 8pm EDT on Monday (here is where it is important to remember that each frame represents what is forecast to occur 3 hours prior to and ending at the valid time. Notice the beautiful rain shield spiraling out of the system to the south, Monday will certainly be an interesting day!

But wait, there’s more! What happened to our system dipping south for a bit, and taking a longer trek to the north and east? Well, let’s see how things differ today with our 7.5 day Ptype Animation. Recall this product is at 6 hour intervals instead of three. Once you open her up, click “stop” and “forward one” until you reach F066hr Valid 2am EDT on Monday.

Here our low is centered over the same region of NE Colorado, now slowly click a few more frames. Remember this product is “twice as fast” when viewing the animation, but in reality simply represents longer windows of time, so you must make careful observations.

Click 3 times and watch the low carefully. Try not to concentrate on the location of the symbol and forecast pressure of the low, but instead on the isobars themselves. Notice that for this forecast run (12z today) that for those three frames today it is not forecast to “dip” and become another Dodge City low, but instead propagates on a nearly pure easterly course until the F084 valid 8pm EDT where she treks northeasterly.

By F108 valid 8pm EDT on Tuesday March 24 she shows a heading of western Minnesota instead of eastern, with a forecast central pressure of 994mb, and by 2pm EDT on Wednesday heads into Canada on the borders of Ontario and Manitoba Provinces.

Also notice around this time the potential for a developing low off the eastern seaboard. Basically starting around 8pm EDT on Monday (F084) notice the very weak developing pressure of 1007mb sitting in the Atlantic with the snows we discussed for Maine. Advance through 8pm EDT on Tuesday (F108) she looks a little healthier, and maintains herself through Wednesday, Thursday, and by Friday at 2am EDT (F162) she really looks healthy at 988mb. However, what if the low were develop slightly closer to the coastline? Or will Nova Scotia simply get nailed, and perhaps a bit of Maine?

Something else to keep our eye on is another developing system next Thursday (F138 on our Animation) valid 2am EDT. Again over northeastern Colorado but look at those forecast isobars… Sheesh! she could be a healthy one too. Tough to tell that far out, but it is something to certainly keep our eye on.

Something else you may wish to view are our forecast Maximum and Minimum temperature animations. On Sunday morning the cold we discussed for the mid-Atlantic through the northeast shows its nasty self and hangs on for the northeast through Tuesday Morning, and as the day rolls along the cold air advection associated with our developing storm barrels into the northern plains. The good news is by next Thursday the majority of the central and southern plains through the northeast will have a brief respite from the cold, so we have something to look forward too!

Please be sure to view our Advisory and Radar Centers for the latest updates and developments.

As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!

cheers,

–patrick

So far the storms have been producing large hail and gusty winds, with one report of a possible tornado causing downed trees. View the live Storm Reports section of our mapcenter for further details.

The storms will continue to move east throughout the evening and into tomorrow morning with the possibility of more severe storms in the southeast tomorrow, including Georgia, southeastern Alabama, and northern Florida with emphasis on the Panhandle.

The snows and ice we discussed on Wednesday certainly did perform with a flourish, as the remnants of that system are currently moving into the northeastern United States, with mostly rains remaining for New England.

A look at our Medium Range Forecast Precipitation Type Animation shows the east coast low we discussed on Wednesday veering slightly more east than the initial forecast. Because of this snows will not be as far inland as the previous runs showed.

Snow totals could be impressive as the system moves through, with emphasis in the south in South Carolina and east central Georgia, with impressive snows also possible along the coastal areas of New England from Connecticut through Massachusetts and Maine.

To step through possibilities over the weekend we will refer to our Animation again. You may find it helpful to choose “stop” on the controls at the bottom and advance each frame individually. Recall our Medium Range product is at 6 hour intervals, and extends out 8 days. Each frame represents that “if” precipitation should occur in some area, what form would that precipitation likely take? Recall, that each frame represents a 6 hour window, meaning that it represents the previous six hours up to and ending at the valid time on the bottom.

The first frame shows snows possible in the high plains due to a mid level disturbance shooting through the area. Snows with this system will not be overly zealous but will be heavy at times, with areas of south central South Dakota receiving greater than 6″ in some areas. Also evident with this frame is the liquid precipitation and associated thunderstorms we discussed above.

As we advance along to the 48 hour forecast (F048hr) valid Sunday Morning at 7am EST we notice the area of lower pressure we discussed on Wednesday has formed and begun to advance along the mid-atlantic states. Notice at this time frame the forecast shows the possibility of snows in the deep south including Mississippi, Alabama, and Northern Georgia. It will be interesting to see if this plays out. Also at this time frame we have the usual monstrous area of lower pressure sitting off the Pacific Northwest. What will it do? =)

As we zoom along to the 60 hour forecast (F060hr) valid 7pm EST on Sunday, notice how the possibility for snow extends all along the coastal regions and still includes portions of the south in the mix. This is due to surface influences and kinematics elongating the area of lower pressure. Areas as far north as the Northern tip of Maine are forecast to have the possibility of snow at this point.

At this point this particular forecast graphic as you advance through the beginning of next week shows the possibility of snow along coastal areas through Tuesday morning. Shorter term graphics also include the possibility of icing and more restrictive snow totals.

An examination of our Forecast Minimum Temperatures Animation shows why the possibility for snows in the deep south exist. Recall that this product is at 6 hour intervals out 8 days, and that it represents what the minimum temperature is forecast to be over the 6 hour window up to and including the valid time.

Notice the large swath of warmth in the south at the first image, and how as you slowly advance that warmth dissipates to be replaced by the red toi (Temperature of Interest) that represents the freezing mark, or 32ºF. The freezing mark plunges into the deep south so that at least for a time, they will have to suffer as the rest of us do!

The good news is that by next Friday (Mark 6) it seems that the great lakes and the north may finally get to see some above freezing temperatures again!

Please be sure to view our Advisory and Radar Centers for the latest updates and developments.

As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!

cheers,

–patrick